Assignment 1 - Fire Prediction
Due 23:59 Sunday 30th March 2025
You are required to make a prediction on the likely extent and intensity of a fire using your knowledge of different fire models and fire behaviour characteristics. Specifically, you will predict the progress of the Muskvale fire which occurred just south of Daylesford on 23 rd February 2009.
Fire Specifics
A fire started on the side of the road near Sailors Falls at about 1510 hrs and had spread to the extent shown in red on the map by 1600 hrs. The fire was burning in forest, not too dissimilar to the forests around Creswick.
The weather over the course of the fire is given in the table below. Due to a prolonged dry season, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index was 120 and the last rainfall was 15 mm 3 weeks earlier. A wind change, due to the passage of a cold front, affected the fire area at 1800 hrs.
Table 1. Weather observations at Muskvale during the fire. Use these weather observations for the manual predictions. Data for the computer predictions will be provided separately.
Table 2. Fuel within forested areas
|
|
Hazard
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Height
|
|
Surface
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VH
|
|
|
Near surface
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High
|
50 cm
|
|
Elevated
|
High
|
1.5 m
|
|
Bark
|
Extreme
|
|
Table 3. Number, type and availability of suppression resources. Note that the resources available in later time periods are in addition to those available earlier.
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Resource availability
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30-minutes
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60-minutes
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2 hours
|
|
Aircraft -
reconnaissance
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0
|
1
|
2
|
|
Aircraft - firebomber (Eriksen)
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0
|
1
|
4
|
|
D4 dozer
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0
|
1
|
2
|
|
Tanker 4000 litre
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
|
Tanker 400 litre
|
2
|
8
|
15
|
|
Rakehoe crews
|
0
|
3
|
5
|
Tasks to complete
Manual prediction
1) Draw on the map where you think the fire would be for each hour of the afternoon until 2100 hours, including the extent of the area affected by spotting.
2) What difference does it make whether you use the VESTA model or the McArthur Mk5 model? Explain why there are differences.
Computer prediction
3) Using Phoenix and SPARK, model and map the progression of the fire as well as the extent of spotting. What were your assumptions in the simulation(s)?
Note: Outputs for Phoenix will be provided as the program does not run on Mac computers.
Comparison of methods
4) What were the main differences between the methods of prediction? Consider the manual Vs computer predictions, and Phoenix Vs Spark predictions. Why do you think these differences occurred?
5) What was the maximum fire intensity reached by this fire using the different methods of prediction? This could be summarised in a table. If differences occurred, what were they and why?
Impact of the fire
6) There are a number of settlements in the area, namely Muskvale, Leonards Hill, Musk, Bullarto and Bullarto South.
• Which of these settlements are likely to come under threat from this fire?
• When are the threatened settlements likely to be affected?
Consider using a table in your answer to show time of impact from spotting and the fire front.
7) A water reservoir and catchment (Wombat Creek Dam) is also in the general vicinity of the fire. This is the primary water supply for Daylesford, a town of 5,000 people and a significant tourist town. Trees in this catchment are 30-40 m tall.
• Is the water catchment likely to be affected by this fire?
• If so, how severely will it be burnt?
Suppression
8) Given the predicted spread rate for the fire, the nature of the forest and the resources available as shown in Table 3, how would you go about suppressing this fire?
• Briefly describe your suppression plan
Prediction Uncertainty
9) What factors are the most critical to know precisely to be able to answer the above questions about the extent and timing of this fire? Give some examples of how different the answer might have been if you were uncertain about some factors.